Forecasting the workforce for low-carbon targets

Real data. Real regions. Real workforce needs.

WLC’s latest forecasts use millions of property-level EPC certificates to identify the retrofit tasks required across the UK and convert them into clear, occupation-specific workforce projections.

This provides a precise view of which trades will come under pressure, and when, as regions move toward net-zero.

Powered by WLC’s Low-Carbon Labour Forecasting Tool, the forecasts draw on available EPC data at property level to provide a grounded, region-specific assessment of:

  • the scale of retrofit activity required locally,
  • the mix of skilled occupations involved, and
  • the timing and intensity of future workforce pressures.
Supporting Evidence

What the data shows

South London

Retrofitting homes across six boroughs in South London will require 66,200 person-years of additional skilled labour by 2032 — nearly 40% above current demand. Key pressure points: plumbing and HVAC trades, scaffolders, and roofers.

Tees Valley

Delivering interventions across EPC band D and below will require 39,800 person-years of skilled labour , with demand peaking by 2033. Key pressure points: building-envelope specialists, construction trades supervisors, plumbing and HVAC trades.

London social rental

EPC-recommended improvements in London’s social rental homes will require 41,250 person-years of skilled labour . Key pressure points: building-envelope specialists, construction supervisors, scaffolders, and roofers.

Central London

Analysis of 1.91 million EPC interventions indicates an average annual requirement of 13,000–17,000 people over the next five years. Key pressure points: building-envelope specialists, plumbing and HVAC trades, construction trades supervisors, scaffolders, and roofers.

These forecasts offer a practical evidence base for:
Shaping regional skills pipelines
Aligning training capacity with real demand
Targeting investment in high-pressure occupations
Planning delivery routes for retrofit programmes
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